Are you ready for some NFL Divisional action? We certainly are!
If you've been following along with us, you know is the second week of our playoff best bets. For those just joining us, here's how it works.
Each expert uses an imaginary bankroll and risks one $100 unit on a game wager and one $100 unit on a player prop each week of the postseason. We’ll keep the bets rolling through the Super Bowl, and crown a winner at the end based on ROI.
Follow along and fade or follow your favorite analysts! We've listed each experts record and their bankroll with their picks below.
Now, let's have some fun!
Michael Fabiano 1-1 ($190.91)
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-118)
I have been saying all year that the Chiefs aren’t going back to the Super Bowl, and this is where they’ll get knocked out. Their offense has struggled, and Josh Allen is playing at a high level. If he can avoid turnovers, the Bills should win the game and cover the small number.
Best Player Prop: Jordan Love over 6.5 rushing yards (-110)
I liked this prop last week against my beloved Dallas Cowboys, as Love had averaged 17.7 rushing yards per game on the road going into the contest. He had -1 yards. Damn it! Win some, lose some … and I’m going to go right back with this prop and say he goes over the 6.5 ground yards against a San Francisco defense that will no doubt bring the heat all night.
Jen Piacenti 2-0 ($400.00)
Best Bet: Buccaneers +6.5 (-108)
The Lions secondary has been one of the most generous in the league this year, and Baker Mayfield looked perfectly healthy last week vs. the Eagles. I will bet Todd Bowles puts together a smart defensive plan to keep the Bucs in this game until the end. As good as Goff is at home, Baker is on the road. Mayfield accounted for 19 total touchdowns in nine away games this year- the same amount Goff passed for when at home.
Best Player Prop: CJ Stroud under .5 INT (+130)
Last week I played a plus money prop for Stroud to throw two touchdowns. This week I am sticking with my guy, but I am pivoting to an interception prop for the rookie passer. Stroud has only thrown five picks in 16 games played this season. That’s right. CJ Stroud has been picked on less 1% of his pass attempts. That leads the all NFL players- and by a fair margin. I know the Ravens have 18 defensive interceptions this season, but for plus-money I’m riding again with the likely rookie of the year.
Kyle Wood 2-0 ($370.91)
Best Bet: Bills Moneyline (-143)
I’m fine backing Buffalo to win straight for a worse price rather than cover the 2.5-point spread against the Chiefs in part because the prop listed below has plus odds. The Bills’ 31–7 home record since 2020 is the best in the NFL but they’re just 20–16–2 against the spread over that same stretch in Orchard Park. Josh Allen has defeated Patrick Mahomes twice at Arrowhead Stadium, including in December as an underdog, and he’s 1–0 against him in Buffalo. Though I picked the Bills to cover in my game betting preview, if you want to insure yourself against a 24–23 or 31–30 outcome just take them on the moneyline. Both Buffalo and Kansas City have displayed a knack for close games this season and these teams have shown us before this matchup just might come down to who has the ball last.
Best Player Prop: Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (+134)
I’m shocked to see this prop available at plus odds, but I’ll gladly take it. Flowers has recorded at least five receptions in nine of 16 games this season and he matched a season-high with nine on 10 targets against the Texans in Week 1. Not only was that the rookie receiver’s debut, but that performance also happened with a healthy group of pass-catchers for the Ravens so a potential Mark Andrews return shouldn’t infringe on Flowers’ involvement.
Craig Ellenport 1-1 ($184.75)
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110)
A lot has changed for the better for the Houston Texans since they lost 25-9 in Baltimore in Week 1 but one thing remains the same: They’re still 0-1 on the road vs. playoff teams. That’s right, Houston’s other seven road games this season were all against non-playoff teams – and that includes an ugly loss to the Carolina Panthers and a 30-6 beatdown at the hands of the New York Jets. The Ravens haven’t been perfect at home but their resume includes home wins over the Lions and Rams and a 33-19 road win over the 49ers that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. The Texans would’ve won last week without a pair of pick-sixes but those big plays are a reminder that the Browns just weren’t worthy last week. The Ravens will not beat themselves.
Best Player Prop: Jadeveon Clowney over 0.5 sacks (+125)
The Ravens led the NFL this season with 60 sacks (roughly 3.5 per game). The Texans allowed 47 sacks. If game script goes as I expect, with the Ravens winning comfortably, then C.J. Stroud will be dropping back even more than usual. That opens the door for Clowney, who tied a career high this season with 9.5 sacks, to hit this prop. Clowney had at least one sack in seven games, and he offers plus money here.
Bill Enright 1-1 ($183.33):
Best Bet: 49ers -9.5 (-118)
As impressive as the Green Bay Packers win over the Dallas Cowboys was, their playoff run comes to a screeching hault in San Francisco. The 49ers are the best team in the NFC and it's not even close. This squad is heading straight to the Super Bowl and no amount of Jordan Love precision passing or Aaron Jones powerful rushing is going to get in their way. The Brock Purdy-led squad was No. 2 in points per gamer with an average of 28.9 points per outing and their suffocating defense allowed just 17 points per game (3rd). Look for the 49ers to jump out to an early lead and continue to throw points on the board while their defense punishes the Packers offense. A double-digit win incoming for the team bound to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Best Player Prop: Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown (+110)
With Mark Andrews out of the lineup for the Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson has connected with his rookie playmaker in the endzone at a frenzied pace. Flowers has five touchdowns in his last five games and scored in four of those five outings. Look for this year's MVP to ball out against the Texans defense and that includes tossing a touchdown to Flowers to help the Ravens get by Houston.
